SYRIA: US MILITARY INTERVENTION

LIKELY FORTHCOMING SCENARIO 

The US administration placed itself in a dilemma after announcing the “Red Line” doctrine regarding the use of chemical weapons in SYRIA. In order to maintain its credibility the US is now forced to react, at least that is what the US wants the public to believe. AMERICAN public on the other hand strongly oppose US intervention and involvement in SYRIA.

Update:

Element of surprise lost

From the military perspective, current attack revelations by the U.S. government in terms of SYRIA is counterproductive. The impending strike against the Assad regime is the best pre- announced missile attack in history.  Thus the element of surprise is lost and therefore the US are now stalling by claiming the administration has not yet decided if and when to attack. Or are this just deceiving tactics?

Another scenario could be that ISRAEL has received updated intelligence to the fact that if the US and its allies initiate a strike, Assad could launch bio - chemical warheads against ISRAEL and its allies in the region. And thus the US and its allies are debating if they are able to knock out the majority of chemical weapon storage sites in Syria efficiently.

SHORT SURGICAL MISSILE STRIKES BY USA AND ITS ALLIES, SIMILAR TO THOSE CONDUCTED BY ISRAEL IN RECENT PAST 

Thus a US military intervention in SYRIA in most likelihood will be short surgical missile strikes similar to those conducted by ISRAEL in recent past in SYRIA, and let the UK, FRANCE and TURKEY intervene in a more complex, mainly clandestine way. But even public opinion in the UK seems to oppose UK involvement in the conflict, thus making every step Britain’s politicians make, precarious one. 

With short surgical missile strikes the USA saves its face by sticking to its threat; mainstream media on the other hand has its action extravaganza, portraying the intervention in an inflated way in order to continue the propaganda-media war which has raged in SYRIA since the beginning of the uprising and last but not least the weapons industry will also be a benefiter, for the uprising in SYRIA will continue for quite some time.

Interesting to note is that GERMANY’S stance is hardly ever mentioned when it comes to an allied military intervention in SYRIA. Granted GERMANY has upcoming elections in a couple of weeks and thus prefers to keep a low profile on the international stage, but on the other hand is the key player in the EUROPEAN UNION and usually does not let FRANCE and BRITAIN take the helm regarding EU foreign policies. 

RUSSIA WILL NOT INTERVENE 

RUSSIA on the other hand, despite being a strong ally of SYRIA will not intervene in case of US military intervention in SYRIA. Thus the question remains if IRAN will openly intervene. Most probably not, IRAN will use strong accusative rhetoric’s but will refrain from engaging openly in the conflict, but rather step up terror attacks against ISRAEL and the USA and its allies through its proxy, Hezbollah in LEBANON. 

CLOSE COORDINATION BETWEEN THE USA AND ISRAEL 

Post US intervention scenario

ISRAEL clearly will have strong influence on US decision making and on how the intervention in SYRIA will be conducted, for clearly the repercussions of such attack will be significant for ISRAEL, thus surgical – cosmetic strikes are the most likely scenario. Which leaves the question, why BRITAIN and FRANCE are so eager to engage in SYRIA?  

Is it a deception tactic coordinated with the USA and ISRAEL, or do the two former imperialist, colonialist powers of the region anticipate geo- strategic advantages if the current regime is toppled in order to implement a similar strategy as was the case with the Sykes Picot Agreement between FRANCE and BRITAIN, which divided the region and specifically SYRIA between the two countries. The 1915 agreement some argue, was the reason not only for the division of SYRIA but also the starting point of the ISRAELI Palestinian conflict and thereby causing instability in the entire region.

See: SYKES PICOT AGREEMENT http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sykes%E2%80%93Picot_Agreement

FRANCES COLONIAL AMBITIONS IN SYRIA http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2012/12/frances-colonial-ambitions-in-syria.html

SYRIA WILL PROBABLY CONDUCT A FEW CONVENTIONAL MISSILE ATTACKS AGAINST UNPOPULATED AREAS IN ISRAEL

In retaliation to a Western attack, SYRIA will most likely launch one or two conventional missiles into ISRAEL, making sure to cause minimum damage, for they know ISRAEL favors the current regime over a scattered Islamic fundamentalist regime. 

Geopolitical Analysis and Monitoring wrote June 2012: ISRAEL’S INTERESTS

……..This is almost certainly because the ISRAELI Prime Minister would, on balance, prefer the Assad regime to continue; it is a known quantity and any new regime could severely destabilize the effective balance-of-power between two uneasy neighbors’………… 

(Read the entire article at:http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/syria-feasts-and-rites-of-confusion.html

 

TURKEY and the GULF STATES will provide support for the USA but will refrain from conducting their own intervention scenario and focus on clandestine insurgence operations, propaganda and logistic support.

RUSSIA, as mentioned above, will not intervene militarily once the US engages in SYRIA, but most probably will increase weapon supplies to SYRIA, a lucrative business for all parties involved, because the civil war in SYRIA will in most likelihood continue for a long time, similar to the civil war in LEBANON which lasted 15 years.

US PIVOT: IT IS NOT US INTENTION TO TOPPLE ASSAD!

Interesting to note is that the USA recently claimed it is not the USA’S intention to topple Assad, because he is the lesser of the two evils, when it comes to choose between Assad and Islamic Fundamentalists. The reason for this shift in rhetoric’s could be that the US is finally becoming fully aware that if Assad is cornered, he might really launch his bio – chemical weapons, thus ignite a full scale war in the region, for unlike IRAQ, SYRIA possesses bio – chemical warheads. 

GEOPOLITICAL ANALYSIS AND MONITORING wrote March 08^th 2012 that: Contrary to the weapons of mass destruction hoax fabricated by the USA in order to justify the IRAQ invasion, SYRIA really posses such lethal arsenal and probably will not hesitate to use them when cornered. 

Read full article at: http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/03/given-fact-syria-does-possess-chemical.html

UNPREDICTABLE REACTION FROM THE ASSAD CLAN IF CORNERED   http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.co.at/2012/06/syria-israel-iran-and-usa.html

SYRIA’S BIO – CHEMICAL WARFARE THREAT? LEGITIMATE, OR A WELCOME EXCUSE FOR US INTERVENTION? 

http://geopoliticsrst.blogspot.com.ar/2012/06/syria_11.html

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IRAN is backing Assad. The GULF STATES are against Assad!

Assad is against the Muslim Brotherhood. The Muslim Brotherhood and Obama are against General Sisi.

But the GOLF STATES are pro-Sisi! Meaning they are against the Muslim Brotherhood!
Iran is pro. Hamas, but Hamas is backing the Muslim Brotherhood!

Obama is backing the Muslim Brotherhood, yet Hamas are against the US!

The GULF STATES are pro US.

TURKEY is with GULF STATES against Assad; yet TURKEY is pro-Muslim Brotherhood and against General Sisi, and General Sisi is being backed by the GULF STATES!

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